Now I don’t want to go into a harsh diatribe about the seemingly endless price-gouging that we’ve been seeing at the pump lately, or how the evil oil companies behind it all are trying to wrench those last few drops of blood out of the stone that is our fossil fuels, or even how any government in its right mind would recognize that we have a serious problem on our hands that needs to be dealt with just a little more actively than by sending all of its citizens a check for $600 to be quickly siphoned back to said evil oil companies within a couple of measly fill-ups, all the while progress towards alternative energy sources is stalled by those very same companies clinging desperately to make their last buckazoids before the lights go out for good…
No, no – I don’t want to get into all of that political nonsense because frankly, it just gets me too wound up to be worth the ranting anymore, but at the same time, I think a very fitting question for this forum to entertain would be just how we might expect these crazy energy prices to affect Walt Disney World vacations in the upcoming months and even years. With new record highs nearly everyday, one would think that eventually the budget stops looking so favorable towards taking a trip down to see the Mouse when keeping the car filled to get the family to school, work, and so forth is a much more immediate need. So some might argue that the question isn’t so much will there be an impact, but when will there be an impact.
The way I see it, there probably won’t be much of a change through the remainder of the summer, and even through the remainder of this year, in fact, because at least I would have to assume that most vacations that have been scheduled during the last half of 2008 have already been paid for, or at least deposits have been put down, and in a time when you’re already losing so much extra money to gas prices, one would hate to forfeit even more by canceling your vacation package and losing a portion of any money you’ve already put down. Also, and please keep in mind that this entire column is purely speculation based on not actual statistics, but simply my own perceptions of people, their vacation habits, and previous histories of both Disney and the oil companies at large, I would think that anyone who still has vacations scheduled out there in the future, unless they’d already overextended themselves and just have no other options, would actually prefer to keep those reservations in tact as a means of enjoying what could very well be their last Disney vacation for a while until finances improve.
Now that said, I definitely think that next year is going to be an entirely different ballgame and we’re likely to see some interesting promotions coming out of Orlando in an attempt to convince guests that they can still afford to make the trip down if this downward spiral that we’re currently riding opts to continue. In the short term, it really could go either way because historically I have noticed that many families, at least when it comes to vacation, will still over-extend themselves (i.e. buy on credit) for these trips simply because they need something in their lives to look forward to – nobody wants to go to work everyday simply to make enough money to keep the electricity turned on, so having that little vacation to Orlando out there on the horizon to look forward to can be a positive effect in simply helping people endure their otherwise mundane day-to-day lives. Of course, at the same time, as anyone who paid attention in economics can tell you, that kind of spending what you haven’t yet even earned can’t last forever, hence many analysts estimate that the average household carries upwards of $10,000 in credit card debt. So people can keep charging their trips down to see the Mouse to VISA for a while, but eventually it comes time to pay the piper and that revenue stream for Disney is going to come to a grinding halt.
And mind you, that’s assuming that there’s even a substantial percentage of Disney’s guests that fit into that particular situation – there are simply a lot of variables up in the air here that really nobody can put their fingers on.
Can we learn from the new energy shuffleboard game @ Epcot?
But then again, to consider the flipside of this situation, let’s also consider that we’re already seeing many companies across the country adjusting their pricing to help offset the extra fuel costs that they themselves are enduring, and now we’re faced with wondering if Disney will also do the same? Can Disney afford to do the same and risk alienating customers who are already peeved about their annual rate hikes that continue to stomp all over the national rate of inflation??? If I’m already up in the air about coming back next year because gas just passed $5 / gallon, rising ticket and resort prices certainly aren’t going to help swing that vote in Mickey’s favor, but at the same time, will the company be willing to cut into their own profits to help subsidize those increases for their customers? Knowing that in the past, Disney has regularly been jacking up those prices both to find that maximum sticker price that guests are willing to pay and likewise doing their best to help offset any less than spectacular profits from other divisions of the company by falling back on the parks, ye old crystal ball says that our outlook doesn’t look too good…
Of course, there are other things that Disney can do besides simply increase ticket prices and we’re actually already seeing some of those things take place, whether its veiled as the closing down of the clubs at Pleasure Island to make way for new shops and restaurants that will lower Disney’s operating costs and hopefully be more profitable to boot or even in more straightforward measures such as upgrading all 23 of their hotels across Walt Disney World to meet Florida’s Green Lodging designation, meaning that not only do their operating costs drop by means of utilizing energy efficient lighting and reducing water usage via low-flow faucets, but they’re also making an effort to help the environment at the same time – definitely worth kudos in my book! What other efforts are being made internally to help cut costs, it’s hard to tell, but I have a feeling that despite their previous ticket increases over the last few years, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that increasing prices again when the nation is teetering on the edge of a recession probably isn’t in their best interests and I think that at least for the next few years even, we’re going to see other changes being made around the World that don’t directly involve prices going up.
We can keep our fingers crossed hoping that this won’t include dropping some services as well, but I would expect them to be looking more closely at the popularity of their special events – both big and small – over the next couple of months to ensure that enough guests are still partaking in them to even make them worthwhile…
Even locally, I know our trips have gotten more expensive and decreased since last year...
Now all of that dismally said, is there anything positive that can come from all of this?! Well, as I mentioned earlier, if a decline in reservations begins to appear I would definitely expect to see some additional promotions to appear on the horizon – whether we’re talking about free dining, extra park tickets, or simply discounted room rates will depend on just how big of a dip in attendance is predicted. I would bet my proverbial hat, though, that we’ll at least see something, considering that even my fiancée and I (being Florida Resident Annual Passholders) have seen a decrease in the number of day trips that we’ve been taking over to Orlando simply because trips that used to cost us $10 in gas plus a meal are now costing $20-$30 in gas before we even get in the door. No doubt we’ll likely see something similar to the gas cards that many other businesses are already offering along with their services – “Come down to Disney World and let Mickey fill up your tank!” or something. As much as they don’t want to cut into profits, it’s an even bigger loss if those rooms stay empty altogether.
This is going to be a rough position for companies like Disney because being in the entertainment industry, as much as so many of us think that we can’t live without Walt Disney World, the truth of the ugly matter is that we can’t live without food and water more and if gas prices get high enough, the decision will already have been made for us. Let’s just hope it doesn’t get to that point, and in the meantime, use this time to see what kinds of adjustments we can make to our own lifestyles – such as upgrading the lighting in our homes to be more energy efficient – that will also ultimately help to keep a few extra nickels and dimes in the Disney jar saving up for that next big trip!
The next few years are no doubt going to be a challenge, but just remember the words of Walt Disney – keep moving forward, and eventually our curiosity will lead us down a new path that will put an end to our dependence on oil once and for all.
I know I wouldn't mind cruising to the office or the mall via monorail!